At NEWSCENTRAL, we are closely monitoring recent developments surrounding Oracle and its partnership with OpenAI. What initially appeared to be a rapid leap forward in the cloud and AI industry is increasingly raising questions among investors and analysts.
Oracle, long overshadowed by cloud market leaders, has made headlines this year thanks to major contracts for leasing computing power for AI. In particular, its contract with OpenAI and involvement in the large-scale Stargate project seemed like the start of a new era for the company. However, behind the impressive growth lies a complex financial structure that is now drawing significant scrutiny.
According to the company, its portfolio of obligations has exceeded $455 billion due to large deals with OpenAI and other AI developers. A significant portion of Oracle’s capital expenditures in 2025-2026 is tied to building data centers for OpenAI and other AI clients. Freddy Miller, senior analyst at NEWSCENTRAL, emphasizes: “We see a high concentration of risk around a single client and substantial debt, which could impact the company’s financial stability if the AI market slows down.”
At NEWSCENTRAL, we note that this model-massive data center construction funded by debt-carries three key risks. First, high concentration: a significant share of future revenue is tied to one client, OpenAI. Second, debt burden: some analysts estimate that Oracle’s debt could triple by 2028 if CapEx remains at current levels. Third, macroeconomic instability and rising interest rates could complicate debt servicing and devalue future obligations.
Objectively, Oracle does have strong arguments: as the use of leased computing power grows, the margin on infrastructure services may improve, and the company asserts that the business will become profitable in the long term. Yet, at NEWSCENTRAL, we believe that the emphasis on large pre-paid obligations and debt financing creates vulnerability-especially if demand for AI computing falls short of expectations.
The consequences are already visible: after its initial surge, Oracle shares have retraced, and the cost of insuring its debt has reached record levels, reflecting growing market distrust.
In light of this, NEWSCENTRAL forecasts that the company’s upcoming quarterly reports will act as a stress test for its debt-financing model. If OpenAI and other major clients do not show stable revenue and profitability growth, Oracle could face serious challenges in servicing its debt and maintaining its investment-grade rating.
NEWS CENTRAL recommends that investors and executives of tech companies considering large-scale AI infrastructure investments approach cautiously: strategies based on large pre-paid contracts with currently unprofitable clients require careful evaluation. Diversifying the client base and maintaining a balanced mix of equity and debt remain key to financial resilience.