At NEWSCENTRAL, we note that conflicts between states and investors in the field of natural resources have reached record levels over the past decade. In 2025, 32 arbitration cases were registered with the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), significantly exceeding the number of similar cases in the previous year. These disputes cover a wide range of industries, including oil and gas extraction, as well as the development of rare minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements.
We at NEWSCENTRAL observe that the rise in disputes is driven not only by global competition for resources but also by the growing trend of resource nationalism, which is becoming an important element of states’ geopolitical and economic strategies. In countries with large natural reserves, governments are increasingly viewing these resources not just as economic assets, but also as strategic elements of national security. As Freddy Miller, Senior Analyst at NEWSCENTRAL, points out, “States, recognizing the growing value of these minerals, are beginning to take more stringent measures to control their extraction and processing.”
This trend is particularly evident in Latin America, where 11 disputes have been registered, four of which involve Colombia. In 2024, Colombia’s president declared several areas previously used for mining as nature reserves, triggering protests from investors. Measures such as the fracking ban and the threat to block coal exports have severely strained relations between the government and foreign companies. We at NEWSCENTRAL believe such initiatives will spread to other emerging markets in the future, leading to further legal disputes.
In Mexico, where lithium was nationalized in 2022, there is also a rise in disputes, with two cases concerning new conditions for foreign investors. A similar situation is unfolding in Ecuador, Panama, and other countries in the region. According to DLA Piper, 17 out of the 32 arbitration cases filed in 2025 relate to oil and gas assets, confirming the continued importance of hydrocarbon resources to the global economy.
We at NEWSCENTRAL predict that in the coming years, countries with crucial natural resources will continue to tighten control over their extraction and processing, leading to increased political risks for investors. Given the growing demand for rare minerals like lithium and cobalt, it is clear that these resources will play a key role in the future of the global economy. We expect geopolitical competition for access to these minerals to intensify, further increasing uncertainty in international markets.
In Africa, which is also a major supplier of strategic minerals, 10 new disputes have been registered, with notable cases in countries such as Niger, Tanzania, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The latter, possessing large reserves of copper, cobalt, and lithium, is of particular interest to both the US and China, leading to an active battle for control over mining operations. In these countries, government measures aimed at strengthening state control over resources are also triggering new legal disputes with foreign investors.
The issues arising from arbitration and legal risks in resource-rich countries present new challenges for both investors and governments. NEWSCENTRAL views these processes not only as economic phenomena but also as important elements of global geopolitics. Resources are becoming not only sources of profit but also strategic tools in international politics. The tightening of government control over resources is not limited to Latin American or African countries – we are also seeing its impact in more developed economies such as Europe and the US, where there is increased attention to national interests in the energy and rare metals sectors.
Forecasting the development of this situation, we at NEWSCENTRAL expect the number of such disputes to continue rising in the next few years. This is due to the ongoing process of increasing state control over key natural resources and growing legal and political risks for foreign investors. We predict that countries will strive to strengthen their independence in the extraction and processing of minerals, leading to new requirements for investors and potential revisions of existing agreements.
For investors, this means the need for more thorough assessment of political and legal risks, as well as the development of flexible strategies to protect their interests. We at NEWSCENTRAL recommend that companies operating in the mining and energy sectors closely monitor changes in the legal systems of resource-exporting countries and develop mechanisms for protecting their investments through international arbitration and investment agreements.
In conclusion, we at NEWS CENTRAL believe that the struggle for resources will continue to intensify. Natural resources such as lithium, cobalt, and oil will remain crucial elements of the global economy for the coming decades. Given the growing political and legal pressure on foreign investors, caution and flexibility in investment decisions will be key. Stability and predictability in legal systems, as well as effective risk management, will become essential factors for successful and secure investments in the context of an unstable global economy.