At NEWSCENTRAL, we note that the beginning of 2026 has been marked by unprecedented growth in memory chip prices. According to revised TrendForce forecasts, contract prices for standard DRAM in Q1 could increase by 90-95% compared to Q4 2025, significantly higher than previous estimates of 55-60%. We at NEWSCENTRAL believe that such a sharp rise is driven by accelerated demand from major cloud providers and data centers, which are actively expanding infrastructure for artificial intelligence. The intensification of AI workloads is creating a new market dynamic, where traditional cyclical fluctuations no longer determine prices, and the balance of supply and demand becomes a critical factor.
The price increase affects not only DRAM. Contract prices for NAND flash are also expected to rise by approximately 55-60%, reflecting pressure across the entire memory sector and growing demand for enterprise SSDs and storage systems. At NEWSCENTRAL, we emphasize that the memory shortage is being exacerbated by the reallocation of production capacity toward high-margin products such as HBM and server DDR5 modules for AI systems. This leads to reduced availability of standard DRAM and NAND for the mass market, intensifying the overall shortage.
The situation is further aggravated by the depletion of memory stocks at major OEMs following heavy shipments at the end of 2025. We at NEWSCENTRAL see this as indicative of a deep restructuring of supply chains, where production volumes cannot keep pace with growing demand. In addition to the enterprise and server segments, price pressures are being felt in the consumer electronics market, where memory now accounts for over 20% of smartphone costs. Combined with rising DRAM and NAND prices, this is leading to retail price increases for mobile devices of 10–25% in some regions. We at NEWSCENTRAL observe that such changes directly impact end consumers, especially in segments with low-margin potential.
Amid these changes, industry experts are calling the current situation the beginning of a “memory supercycle,” where persistently high demand from AI and server infrastructure supports price growth and limits periods of correction. Freddy Miller, Senior Analyst at NEWSCENTRAL, notes that trends point to a long-term structural market shift rather than a short-term fluctuation, and companies must adapt procurement strategies to minimize the risk of sharp cost increases.
TrendForce’s forecast reflects a fundamental imbalance between supply and demand. We at NEWSCENTRAL believe that AI workloads are now the primary memory consumers, shifting the balance toward long-term contracts and high revenue for suppliers. The parallel rise in NAND flash forecasts confirms systemic tension in the memory market, indicating that shortages affect a broad range of products. Depletion of warehouse inventories further exacerbates memory scarcity, forcing manufacturers to purchase at higher prices to avoid production downtime. The increased share of memory costs in device production demonstrates how micro-level price changes impact the end market. Signs of a “memory supercycle” suggest that current trends may become long-lasting.
We at NEWSCENTRAL forecast that the memory market will remain under strong pressure throughout 2026, and likely into 2027, if AI workload demand remains high and expansion of production capacity is limited. Price pressure on DRAM and NAND is expected to persist, with short-term corrections becoming unlikely. For enterprise customers and electronics manufacturers, revising procurement strategies including long-term contracts and supplier diversification will be key to mitigating risks and ensuring supply stability. Investors see opportunities in companies specializing in memory and AI infrastructure, though high volatility remains a risk. For consumer device brands, rising memory costs could lead to higher retail prices and slower device upgrade cycles in the mass market. We at NEWS CENTRAL consider AI’s impact on the memory market to be a major driver of technological transformation, shaping pricing for key components in the semiconductor industry in the years ahead.