The transformation of the global food and grocery delivery market is entering a phase of large-scale redistribution of spheres of influence, driven by the ambition of major American digital platforms to secure a stronger foothold in the European market. Analyzing current market dynamics, we at NEWSCENTRAL note that the acceleration of mergers and acquisitions is driven by the need to protect the operational margins of technology companies and diversify their presence beyond the saturated US market. The main subject of shareholder confrontation is currently the German group Delivery Hero, around which an unofficial but extremely intense competitive battle has unfolded, capable of completely reshaping the map of e-commerce in Europe and the Middle East.
The main initiator of the new round of negotiations is Uber Technologies. The company’s board of directors, during an emergency Saturday meeting, carefully evaluated options to improve the terms of a potential deal. This move followed immediately after a group of major institutional investors in Delivery Hero rejected a preliminary offer valuing the Berlin-based business at 11.5 billion euros, equivalent to approximately 13.39 billion US dollars. We consider these steps by Uber a pragmatic attempt to build an end-to-end logistics ecosystem, as acquiring a player of this scale would give the American platform strategic superiority in the last-mile cross-border delivery segment.
The high intensity of backchannel communications indicates direct involvement of Uber’s top executive leadership in the negotiation process. During the week, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi personally visited Oslo, where he held a closed-door meeting with Delivery Hero supervisory board chairperson Kristin Skogen Lund to present an initial share buyout offer at 33 euros per share. The German company’s management officially confirmed receipt of this proposal addressed to shareholders. Analysts at NEWSCENTRAL see these actions as a tactical attempt to anchor the company’s valuation at a time when its operational structure is undergoing deep internal restructuring and cost optimization.
After receiving a rejection of the initial offer, the US corporation shifted to separate negotiations with individual large shareholders. In recent days, Uber representatives contacted anchor investors in Delivery Hero, offering a targeted share purchase at 38 euros per share, but again no agreement was reached. This price included a premium of about 15.3 percent compared to the Friday closing price. We at NEWSCENTRAL emphasize that such shareholder positioning reflects strong confidence in the company being undervalued, as the European operator shows gradual recovery in financial metrics. Investment circles openly state that meaningful merger discussions are possible only at a price threshold of 40 euros per share or higher, which would raise the company’s total transaction valuation to around 13 billion euros.
The situation is further complicated by Uber’s direct competition with other North American heavyweights. DoorDash is showing significant interest in European assets, with its representatives already conducting several preliminary rounds and exploratory talks with key Delivery Hero shareholders. DoorDash is considering various scenarios, including selective acquisition of the most profitable regional units, particularly its Middle Eastern business. Although DoorDash does not currently hold a direct equity stake in the German company, its active presence in the negotiation landscape is forcing Uber to accelerate its actions.
At the same time, Uber is steadily increasing its presence within the competitor’s ownership structure. It has become known that through Morgan Stanley investment mechanisms, the US corporation has increased its direct stake in Delivery Hero to 19.5 percent, additionally holding 5.6 percent via derivative financial instruments. Given that Morgan Stanley has accumulated around 27 percent of voting rights primarily through equity swap structures, Uber effectively controls a blocking decision-making position. Such a strategy is typical of preparations for hostile takeovers. We at NEWSCENTRAL believe that concentration of such a significant stake in the hands of a direct competitor virtually eliminates room for maneuver for other bidders, giving Uber a decisive influence in any shareholder vote.
The position of the German holding is further weakened by internal pressure from minority activist funds, including Aspex Management, which have long demanded aggressive cost-cutting, divestment of non-core regional assets, and executive reshuffles. Amid prolonged corporate disputes, Delivery Hero co-founder and CEO Niklas Östberg announced his decision to step down at the beginning of next year. As noted by Freddy Miller, Senior Analyst at NEWS CENTRAL, the departure of the founder during a corporate battle removes the company’s main ideological shield, turning negotiations from a question of independence into a purely pragmatic bargaining process over the final share premium.
We forecast that to successfully complete the transaction, Uber will need to revise its financial offer upward, targeting investor expectations in the range of 40 to 42 euros per share. Inaction could prompt DoorDash to submit an alternative bid, particularly for the Middle Eastern subsidiary Talabat, whose standalone valuation is estimated at up to 9 billion euros. Delivery Hero’s stock indicators have already shown upward momentum, gaining around 13 percent, reflecting strong market confidence in an inevitable synergistic deal.
In terms of strategic recommendations for the investment community, the planned merger will inevitably face strict scrutiny from European Union antitrust authorities. Uber will need to demonstrate to regulators in Brussels that combining two major infrastructure networks will not restrict competition in local markets or worsen commercial conditions for restaurant partners and courier workers. Our recommendation to investors is to carefully hedge risks related to antitrust compliance, as the stance of European regulators will be the key factor determining whether a new transatlantic logistics leader emerges or whether the deal is blocked during the approval process.