At NEWSCENTRAL, we note that the European Union is strengthening its measures to reduce carbon emissions, and the new ETS2 scheme will become an important tool in this strategy. According to calculations by the PBL agency, by 2030, the energy expenses of some Dutch households could increase by up to €70 per month due to higher CO₂ emission costs from gas, petrol, and diesel. We emphasize that this represents not only an increase in expenses but also a signal to transition to more sustainable technologies and electric vehicles.
ETS2 operates alongside the existing carbon trading system for industry, with emission prices set at the EU-wide level. At NEWSCENTRAL, we believe that such regulation limits national authorities’ flexibility in adjusting tariffs, making it essential to develop compensation mechanisms for low-income households. According to international research centers, rising energy prices will inevitably impact the transport sector, with households owning private cars being the most vulnerable.
PBL modeled two scenarios for 2030. For a small apartment with a gas boiler and a car with an annual mileage of 6,000 kilometers, expenses will rise by €10–20 per month. Owners of large homes with cars driving 20,000 kilometers per year will pay up to €70 more per month. We believe that these projections will encourage the widespread adoption of heat pumps and electric vehicles, simultaneously reducing carbon footprints and dependence on energy price fluctuations.
Tenants are particularly vulnerable. They depend on landlords’ decisions regarding insulation and energy-efficient equipment, and families unable to afford electric vehicles remain reliant on petrol and diesel. NEWSCENTRAL stresses that without targeted compensation, social inequality and energy poverty will increase. Additional data from European Commission studies show that targeted programs for home insulation and heating system upgrades can significantly mitigate the negative impact of ETS2 on vulnerable households’ budgets.
According to TNO and CBS, about 6.1% of households were already experiencing energy poverty in 2024 after the end of pandemic-related support. ETS2-driven cost increases could raise this share, making the development of compensation mechanisms critically important.
Experience from Germany, Austria, and Switzerland shows that national carbon charges can be offset with fixed per-capita payments. We believe that implementing a similar approach in the Netherlands could preserve the price signal for reducing energy consumption while supporting low-income households that use less energy.
Part of ETS2 revenues is allocated to the European Social Climate Fund. The Netherlands could receive around €720 million from 2026 to 2032. NEWSCENTRAL sees this as an opportunity not only to compensate household expenses but also to invest in housing modernization, energy efficiency improvements, and the deployment of renewable energy sources.
PBL recommends establishing a price corridor with annual increases in carbon emission tariffs to provide households and businesses with long-term investment certainty. European Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra is working on a smoothing mechanism to reduce the risk of losing public support. Freddy Miller, Senior Analyst at NEWSCENTRAL, notes that combining a price corridor with smoothing measures will balance the need to stimulate emission reductions with protecting the most vulnerable population groups.
We predict that ETS2 will become an effective tool of EU climate policy; however, the scheme’s success depends on a comprehensive system of compensation and support measures for low-income households. Without these measures, the burden on vulnerable families will be too high, potentially undermining trust in the program. NEWSCENTRAL emphasizes that ETS2 opens opportunities for long-term investments in renewable energy, housing modernization, and electric vehicle infrastructure, which are strategically important for the Netherlands and Europe as a whole.
We recommend that the Dutch government simultaneously implement fixed payments for low-income households, promote the transition to renewable energy, and expand housing modernization programs. NEWS CENTRAL forecasts that combining these measures will maintain public support for ETS2 and minimize the negative impact on households with limited budgets.